‘The Japanese economy remains at a standstill, with deteriorating external environments added after the negative growth due to the consumption tax hike in fiscal(FY) 2014. The major factor behind the poor growth is structural problems that have not yet been solved. As the falling population and stagnant investment efficiency and productivity are undermining Japan, the shadow of an economic collapse is creeping over Japanese society’.
So says the latest forecast from the Japan Center for Economic Research, entitled The Japanese Economy to Plunge to Zero Growth, which illustrates what the future will look like [below] both with and without structural reform.
The 5-page summary of the baseline scenario is here.
The report appeared on the same day that Bank of Japan Gov. Haruhiko Kuroda expressed confidence that his 2% inflation target will be achieved ‘around’ fiscal 2018.